At the moment, autonomous driving has become a hot word, and major auto companies and technology companies have launched their own products and plans (of course, there is no shortage of PPT). It is foreseeable that after a few years, autonomous driving will become the mainstream trend of smart transportation. It’s just a long way to go between the prototype car and the market.
The continued heat of autopilot can be seen from the CES at the beginning of the year. At this feast of electronic consumption, the participation of OEMs is comparable to that of the North American Auto Show. According to industry insiders, it is expected that after 2030, autopilot will be used in production cars. At this stage, there are still many problems to be solved for the autonomous car, but the next decade of the car is about to open.
There are two ways to achieve automatic driving: one is that traditional car companies use ADAS to gradually automate, and the other is that Internet companies use artificial intelligence to cut in. The progressive application of the ADAS Advanced Driver Assistance System on the vehicle terminal enables active safety of the bicycle. Only after the realization of the Internet of Vehicles, through the driving assistance system and the traffic information of dynamic big data, road traffic safety can be improved, and the coordinated operation between the vehicle and the vehicle can be realized.
In fact, the manufacturers of ADAS assisted driving systems and technology companies relying on data + algorithm technology can work together to promote the rapid maturity and development of autonomous driving technology.
In the 1970s, developed countries such as the United States and Germany began to study the development of driverless cars. Car manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW have not stopped exploring, but are limited by the influence of communication networks and smart devices. Not ideal.
In the past two years, with the rapid development of mobile smart devices and Internet of Vehicles and cloud computing, the development and mass production of autonomous driving has entered the fast lane, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Hyundai, Delphi, Volkswagen, Ford, Infiniti, Toyota and other car companies and zero. Parts dealers compete to showcase their own prototypes of self-driving cars.
In 2015, China also released "Made in China 2025" and planned a roadmap for manufacturing development. Among them, the intelligent networked car has been included in the key areas of national intelligent manufacturing development in the next 10 years.
Long road to technology popularizationUnlike those technologies that go straight into the society when they come out of the lab, autonomous vehicles are bound to be tested in a variety of complex social environments.
The autopilot industry chain includes inductive identification (camera, lidar, millimeter wave radar, body sensor, etc.), path planning end (high-precision digital map), decision-side (decision chip, algorithm) and execution end (electronic development system EBS, Adaptive cruise system ACC) and network link (V2V car-vehicle, V2I car-infrastructure, V2R car-road information, V2P car-pedestrian, etc.). Simply put, autopilot technology can be divided into three levels, perception-"cognition-" actions, and then continually loop.
The technological breakthroughs of NVIDIA, Qualcomm and Mobileye in the field of chips, the rapid development of car networking communication technology and 5G communication technology, and the continuous improvement of algorithmic capabilities such as deep learning have laid a solid foundation for the development of autonomous driving technology.
In the industry, there is a widely circulated saying: 1G implements mobile calls, 2G implements SMS, digital voice and mobile Internet access, 3G brings a mobile Internet based on pictures, and 4G promotes the development of mobile video, while 5G networks It is regarded as the foundation of the Internet of Things and Internet of Things in the future.
To achieve the ultimate goal of autonomous driving, it is inevitable to solve the network delay problem. The current 4G technology has a certain information delay problem. The information delay is very dangerous for autonomous vehicles. Maybe a brake signal may emit a half accident for a serious accident. With the development of 5G technology, the signal delay problem is expected to be solved.
In recent years, there have been many domestic unmanned competitions on smart cars, and the participating cars have responded to various complicated road conditions with outstanding performance. However, those participating in the top rankings often use some foreign imported and expensive accessories, such as 64-line laser radar, high-precision inertial guidance and a large number of sensors, etc. The overall cost of the whole car is also millions.
In the process of industrialization, automatic driving is bound to face the procurement of parts and components and the development of the entire vehicle production chain. In the next 3-5 years, from the perspective of the industrial environment, the driverless car has not been fully industrialized.
Business model is still the biggest challengeAccording to the EU's development strategy, in 2020, autonomous driving can achieve unmanned driving in low-speed situations or in complex situations. By 2030, limited unmanned driving in urban road environments can be achieved.
Although traditional auto companies and Internet companies that are flooding into the automotive industry are conducting automotive intelligent unmanned research to varying degrees, the two seem to have different positioning for smart cars. Traditional car companies are more inclined to drive autonomous cars, which is dominated by manual driving and assisted by automatic driving. The unmanned driving advocated by Internet companies is more inclined to drive autonomous vehicles dominated by the vehicle itself.
Traditional car companies have introduced self-driving cars, paying more attention to the safety and reliability of cars, and will eventually profit by selling cars. Internet companies are emphasizing the ecological and user driving experience, mainly relying on Internet value-added services. profit. This has resulted in different market positioning for autonomous vehicles, and its business model is still unclear. No matter what kind of development the automobile industry develops, it is ultimately inseparable from the economic law of the business. At the end of the industrial chain, there must always be people paying for it.
The emergence of self-driving cars will definitely bring subversive changes to the industry, and the human lifestyle will change. However, at the root of it, autonomous vehicles are still used for transportation. In addition to industrialization problems such as technical research and cost of parts in industrialization, they also face social tests such as law, safety, and human morality. Any of these problems require a huge price from the enterprise, the government, and even the average consumer. In the next ten years after the conclusion of a sentence, the future can be expected!
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