Editor's Note: Looking forward to 2017, the competitive pressure in the LED market has not yet been lifted. The rise of China's first-line LED manufacturers will reduce the survival space of other competitors, and even second-tier LED manufacturers will face the pressure of accelerated elimination. What kind of market chips will be introduced by LED chips and packaging manufacturers such as Mulinsen and Sanan Optoelectronics? What are the production capacity and price trends? What is the annual output value of LED? The article gives a detailed analysis.
1, 2017 LED chips will be in short supply
According to reports, Sanan Optoelectronics recently issued a price increase notice, raising the price of S-30MB/S-32BB series products by 8%, which started the first shot of LED chip price increase in 2017. As the leader of the chip, Sanan Optoelectronics is the only company in China that is engaged in the production of full-color LED chips. The company is actively expanding its production capacity and is expected to have 400 MOCVD equipment by the end of 2017. Overseas LED giants such as Philips, Seoul Semiconductor, LG, Samsung, and CREE have basically stopped production, and new demand has been outsourced to Sanan. Their overseas customer orders are expected to further increase.
According to the calculation of relevant institutions, by the end of 2017, the effective production capacity of LED chips is about 83.28 million pieces, and the demand is about 92.35 million pieces. Among them, the demand for lighting chips is 47.04 million, up 20% year-on-year; the demand for outdoor full-color displays is 26.02 million, up 5% year-on-year; the demand for small indoor space is 1.02 million, up 50% year-on-year; the demand for mobile phone backlights is 1.39 million. There are 440,000 tablets for backlighting, 6.99 million for computer and TV backlights, and 1.06 million for automotive lamps. In view of the fact that LED chip production capacity is still below demand, and demand is growing steadily in 2017, LED chips will be in short supply.
2. The LED lighting market in 2017 will reach US$33.1 billion.
According to TrendForce's “2017 Global Lighting Market Outlook†report, the LED lighting market will reach US$29.6 billion in 2016, while the 2017 LED lighting market will reach US$33.1 billion and LED lighting penetration will reach 52%. According to analysis, benefiting from the development of the regional lighting market, the proportion of LED lighting in Europe in 2016 was 23%, followed by North America and China. Looking ahead, the Asia Pacific lighting market is growing the fastest.
3. In 2017, the global high-brightness LED output value reached 13.18 billion US dollars.
According to the research institute DIGITIMES Research, the annual growth rate of global high-brightness LED output value will be 2.8% in 2017, reaching 13.18 billion US dollars. After the peak growth of the LED industry in 2014, it has gradually slowed down in the next few years. In terms of the number of uses, it will reach 303.75 billion in 2017, with an annual growth rate of 23.9%. Among them, the highest annual increase in usage will still be lighting applications, reaching 39.2%. In terms of the proportion of LED usage, the proportion of lighting applications will reach 66% in 2017, and the LED light source for mobile devices (mainly mobile phones) and LED backlights for medium and large sizes will add up to 20.8%, display panels and vehicles. The LEDs were 5.6% and 4.7%, respectively.
In terms of the annual growth rate of LED usage, in 2017, the positive growth is from high to low for lighting, automotive, display kanban, TV backlight, Mobiledevice applications; relatively, negative growth includes Tablet, NB , Monitor, the annual reduction rate is between 5.2 and 11.9%. Among them, the application growth rate of double-digit growth in 2017 will be lighting and automobiles. Among them, the annual growth rate of lighting will reach 39.2%. It is estimated that the global LED lighting market will reach 40.42 billion US dollars in 2017, and the penetration rate will be 36.7. %. In terms of automotive applications, the main reason for the use of LED light sources for exterior lights is increased. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of this application will reach 15.3%.
4, 2017 infrared LED / laser product application continues to develop
According to market research firm TrendForce 2017 Infrared Laser and Sensing Component Application Market Report, many infrared product applications continue to develop, in addition to the main existing products including security monitoring, emerging growth products such as face and iris recognition, heartbeat oxygen sensing, virtual Reality, e-sports laptops, infrared panels, car sensing, etc., bring unlimited business opportunities to the infrared industry.
5. In 2017, the UV LED market will mature and will take off.
According to industry insiders, the current UV LED power on the market is not high enough. Low-power UVLEDs are used to analyze chemical elements, DOM monitors, etc., while products from 10mW to 30mW are small-flow sterilization and purification, such as water treatment or air purification. Products from 30mW to 50mW are suitable for medium-flow sterilization and purification, as well as resin curing applications. The specifications from 50 mW to 100 mW are suitable for large-flow sterilization and purification, high-speed resin hardening and medical robot applications. However, these application fields are still in the world of high-voltage UV lamps, and UV LEDs are difficult to cut due to insufficient power. Japan’s Daisuke Asahi Kasei’s Kyuichi Naoki believes that due to the ban on mercury bills signed by 92 countries in Japan in October 2013, by 2020, new products using mercury in batteries and tubes and bulbs are, in principle, prohibited from being exported. This actually gives UVCLED a business opportunity that may be more useful. The advantage of UVC LEDs compared to mercury UV lamps is that they do not use heavy metal mercury, and do not require mercury lamps for 1 to 15 minutes of warm-up time. The reaction time of UV LEDs is extremely fast. Moreover, UV LEDs can specify the necessary wavelengths to emit light, resulting in future applications of full power, long life, and low price.
Because UVLED has impact resistance, and the size is not linear like UV tube, it saves space in the device mechanism, and has higher freedom in product design and updated matching application. In terms of voltage, high-voltage alternating current is not required. As long as the direct current of 6 to 12 volts is used, the current can be reduced from 0.5 to 2 amps to as little as 0.02 to 0.3A. There is also an advantage in thermal design. There is no large amount of high-heat radiation from mercury lamps. The basis for heat dissipation can be achieved in the material. As long as the appropriate design is used, the heat improvement and the life of the UV LED can be extended. After the technical capabilities of many UV LED manufacturers have been improved, and the issue of prohibiting the export of new mercury lamps in the future, the application of UV LEDs is expected to be more extensive, not only for specific materials, resin hardening, water and air. The sterilization and purification treatments include more dermatological and medical treatments, VOC gas decomposition, photocatalyst deodorization devices, and more and more applications such as water treatment and sterilization.
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