Electricity demand declines due to power consumption needs to be optimized

Since last October, domestic electricity consumption data has been warming for three consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate has remained above 6%. The situation of using electricity at the beginning of this year suddenly encountered a "cold spring."

According to the electricity consumption data released by the National Energy Administration, the growth rate of electricity consumption in January-February 2013 was only 5.5% year-on-year, of which, the total social electricity consumption in February was 337.4 billion kWh, down 12.5% ​​year-on-year.

In December last year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society showed double-digit growth. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the first two months of this year fell below 6%, and this performance was indeed lower than expected. It is understood that many agencies had previously speculated that the growth rate of electricity usage in the first two months would be above 7%.

Yang Zonglin, a senior engineer of the East China Power Grid Development Planning Department, told reporters that the drop in electricity consumption growth in February was mainly due to the Spring Festival holidays. Industrial and mining enterprises' holiday led to a reduction in industrial electricity consumption, which dragged down the performance of the entire society. However, if we consider the cumulative electricity consumption in January-February, we can eliminate the Spring Festival effect. It seems that although the domestic economic recovery trend is basically established, the pace of recovery is still relatively difficult.

“In addition to the impact of the economic environment, the relatively high base of the same period last year was also the reason for the slowdown in electricity usage in the first two months of the year.” Hu Wenjuan, Macroeconomic Analyst at the CBI Research Center stated that the domestic economic situation in 2012 was “two ends” "The hot middle cold" pattern, so the base of electricity consumption in the first quarter is relatively high.

The gradual optimization of the electricity structure for observing the power consumption of different industries shows that in the first two months of this year, the growth rate of electricity in the second industry based on industry was slow, while that in the third industry including transportation, commercial consumption, and finance increased. The speed is higher.

The data released by the National Energy Administration shows that in the first two months of this year, the growth rate of electricity used by the secondary industry was only 4.2% year-on-year; the growth rate of the tertiary industry's electricity consumption was 13.8% year-on-year.

“Changes in the rate of growth of electricity in the secondary and tertiary industries reflect differences in the domestic economy between different sectors of the industry.” Wu Yichao, an analyst at Guotai Junan International Power, said that the country is committed to the transformation and adjustment of industrial structure and the use of electricity in the secondary industry. The highest energy-consuming industries that contribute the most are the objects of industrial restructuring. In contrast, from January to February, the active performance of commerce, logistics and other industries led to a high level of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry.

In recent years, affected by economic restructuring and energy conservation and emission reduction policies, China's electricity consumption structure has been continuously optimized. The growth rate of secondary industry electricity, especially heavy industry electricity, has slowed down, while that of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents has continued to increase.

According to the data released by the National Energy Administration, in the first two months of this year, the electricity consumption of the second industry in China accounted for 70% of the total electricity consumption in the entire society, and the ratio of electricity consumption for the third industry was 13.5. %, the proportion of electricity consumed by urban and rural residents is 14.8%. In 2010, the proportion of electricity used by the secondary industry was as high as 75%, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was only 10.7%, and the electricity consumption of the residents accounted for only 7.4%.

"China's electricity consumption structure still needs constant optimization, the proportion of secondary industry electricity consumption should still be further reduced, and the proportion of electricity consumed by the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents still needs to be improved." Yang Zonglin said that in the developed countries, the secondary industry and the The gap in the proportion of electricity used by the three industries will not be particularly large, and the proportion of electricity consumed by residents will also be more than 20%. “The living conditions of the people are good, and electricity consumption will naturally rise. This is an inevitable trend.”

In the second quarter, seeing improvement as a trend indicator for the macroeconomic climate, electricity consumption data is often more objectively reflective of the economic ups and downs. From the experts' point of view, although the pace of domestic economic recovery is difficult, the trend of moderate recovery continues.

“Since the third quarter of last year, the domestic economy has bottomed out, but it will only be in the 'grounding' phase for a certain period of time.” Huarong Securities analyst Guigui Long believes that after entering the second quarter, with the start of industrial and mining enterprises back to normal The infrastructure construction projects have started one after another, and the electricity consumption data is expected to gradually pick up.

Guangxun Hang Seng Securities believes that the tertiary industry may be the biggest driving force for the current economic recovery, benefiting from industrial restructuring and accelerating urbanization. It is expected that the tertiary industry's electricity consumption will maintain rapid growth. According to a forecast issued by the China Electricity Council on February 28, China's economy will continue to stabilise and pick up in 2013, driving the growth in electricity demand growth. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the year will increase by 6.5%-8.5% year-on-year.

“Third-sector electricity consumption is expected to maintain double-digit growth during the year. However, due to the relatively small proportion of electricity consumed by the tertiary industry, the key to the increase in electricity consumption growth depends on the strength of the secondary industry.” Wu Yichao said that taking into account the same Based on the base number, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the first quarter is likely to be below 7.5%. It is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will show a significant improvement from the second quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate will recover above 7.5%.