The latest analysis of the price trend of various types of electronic components

At this time last year, suppliers were still struggling to survive. Today, the 2009 annual report has been announced, many suppliers' annual report performance is good, and even the most optimistic analysts are not expected. The reason for this change is simple: suppliers drastically cut costs, followed by strong demand, which in turn led to the subsequent high equipment utilization.

In this case, suppliers naturally browbeate, but it has caused a serious shortage of some products. Of course, not all products are affected. In fact, the delivery period for some products has also been improved. However, the situation of commodities that are in short supply has worsened, and double ordering and rationing have emerged.

As iSuppli pointed out last month, in order to better understand why there is a shortage, the following factors need to be clarified:

1. Manufacturers of electronic components continue to adopt a very conservative attitude toward expanding production capacity. iSuppli Corp. predicts that capital spending in this market in 2010 will be 20% higher than in 2009, but still 30% lower than the historical average of 2004-2008.

2. Market inventory continues to decline, and acceptable inventory levels for suppliers and distributors remain low. Although 9 of the 10 nodes tracked by iSuppli Corporation are close to historical lows, some suppliers have stated that they are willing to maintain the current inventory level, and only EMS stocks have increased.

3. After long-term difficulties, the benefits of component suppliers are very high. In the case of an increase in profits but the market is uncertain, it is a logical choice to stay afloat.

Overall, iSuppli predicts that as the demand remains strong and the global economic outlook becomes clearer, suppliers' attitudes will change. When approaching the third quarter, suppliers will again seek to expand their market share while maintaining their bottom line. Of course, this will only happen if market demand continues to be strong.

The following is the latest analysis of the price trend of various types of electronic components.

Analog Device Regulator In the fourth quarter of 2009, the regulator market grew at a high percentage, which was mainly due to the impact of China, the United States, and European economic stimulus plans.

The growth of the consumer electronics market, such as laptops, desktops, mobile phones, MP3/PMPs, and LCD TVs, has brought growth to the voltage regulator market. In addition, in the fourth quarter, the growth of the industrial and wireline communications market also contributed to the growth of the regulator market. Most consumer markets, such as mobile phones and personal computers, have expanded, which is also reflected in the voltage regulator market. The previous assessment of the regulator market in 2009 was 16.4% lower than in 2008. Now, due to rising market demand for these products, this assessment has been raised.

After the price increase in January, as the demand still exceeds supply, the already used inventory needs to be replenished, so the trend of this price increase will continue. A balance of supply and demand needs to be adjusted over several months. It is expected that during this period, the prices of devices from all major suppliers will increase, such as Texas Instruments and On Semi.

On the supply side, suppliers’ inventory is greatly reduced. The increase in demand in the second half of 2009 has caused an imbalance in supply and demand. This situation may continue until the end of the second quarter of 2010.

In January, the supply period of the regulator market was extended again, and manufacturers with larger shipments generally experienced supply shortages. It is expected that this situation will continue in the first and second quarters of 2010, and the distribution of products may occur in the second quarter.

Op Amp/Interface In January, the price of the op amp rose again. In the first few months of 2009, suppliers' high inventory caused the erosion of the price of operational amplifiers. But now, the price of the operational amplifier has rebounded. The strong demand in the first quarter of 2010, coupled with the panic-reduced capacity of suppliers at the beginning of this year, caused a new year's extension of the delivery period. In January, the delivery period was extended again and will continue into the first and second quarters. In January, the average sales price of operational amplifiers rose. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the average sales price of operational amplifiers will increase in the first and second quarters. It is expected that by the second half of 2010, the delivery date and average selling price will stabilize.

Like op amps, the prices of interface IC products rose in January. Due to the high demand and the imbalance between supply and demand, the prices of interface IC products will continue to rise in the first quarter. For the same reason, in January, the delivery time of interface IC products has also been extended. The PC and mobile phone market are important supporters for the interface IC market. The rising demand in these two markets has brought about a recovery in the interface IC market in the previous quarters. Looking ahead, iSuppli expects that the delivery period and average selling price will stabilize in the second half of 2010.

The demand for ceramic capacitors with capacitive ceramic capacitors has remained stable, and there is no shortage of ceramic capacitors due to a large amount of production capacity. However, there are some exceptions, especially the high-capacity 4.7μF 0805 package and the 1μF 0603 and 0402 packages. By the first quarter of 2010, these ceramic capacitors will have a longer delivery time but will not be rationed. iSuppli believes that despite the tight market supply, the prices of the market will decline moderately because suppliers are reluctant to give up any market share. It is worth noting that there is a huge difference in the supply period of ceramic capacitors with different prices, the lowest-priced products have the lowest profits, and the supply period is also the longest. iSuppli believes that there will be no ration and that due to large manufacturers increasing the production capacity of high-margin products (such as bulk capacitors), the supply situation will improve in the second quarter of 2010.

The market demand for tantalum capacitors has slightly slowed down, but due to limited supply, there will be no major relief from the supply or price pressures. Especially for low ESR products, the delivery period will be stable between 14-16 weeks. As suppliers arrange production based on profit margins, some very cheap product prices rise selectively, and customers can sense the trend of market prices based on the extended delivery period. Polymer capacitors will occupy a certain market position, because the price is close to tantalum capacitors, and its market will expand.

The demand for electrolytic capacitors slightly slowed down, but driven by continued improvement in the consumer market, some of the demand remained very strong. Specifically, the supply of high-voltage capacitors for TV power supplies is tight. The total delivery time is slightly improved. By the second quarter of 2010, the delivery period will continue to improve and there will not be a long-term supply shortage in the market. However, the recovery of automotive market demand may increase the delivery period. The increase in the price of raw materials, at least for the rest of the first quarter, will not be reflected in the price of components. If the market demand remains strong after entering the first quarter of 2010, some mild price increases may occur in the third quarter.

Since the start of the Lunar New Year, demand for connectors has risen rapidly. When entering the second quarter, the demand for consumer products will remain strong. Because the prices of raw materials, such as gold and copper, remain high and may rise, the average sales price of the market will remain relatively stable. In the dual situation of slowing demand and rising material costs, suppliers still face pressure to reduce prices. The standard product delivery period will remain at 4-6 weeks.

The demand for the crystal crystal market has stabilized and supply has improved, which means that the overall supply situation will continue to improve in the second quarter of 2010. Partially packaged products (such as 2520), delivery period is still long. However, iSuppli believes that there will be no shortage in the first half of 2010. The only exception is the 26 MHz crystal, which has been on the spot market for more than 14 weeks and suppliers have already noticed this. iSuppli predicts that this situation will continue to improve in the first quarter.

The demand for filter filters is strong, and this trend will continue in the second quarter of 2010. The delivery period for small size products (1.1 x 1.4mm and 1.6 x 2mm) on the market is 10 weeks. Supply has improved, but in the first quarter of 2010, the availability of these packaged products may still be tight. iSuppli expects the overall supply situation to improve in 2010 as suppliers increase their production capacity. The delivery period for Other products will remain stable and prices may decline slightly.

Logic Devices When we entered the end of the first quarter of 2010, the supply capabilities of the secondary market distributors and EMS were still “suspected”, and reports of control orders and weak distribution were still commonplace. Worse, the limited supply is not limited to only certain products and packages, but it seems to cover the entire logical product range. The report shows that large OEMs are buying, but smaller customers can only rely on distributors and EMS for delivery. The new production capacity is lower than expected. Vendors are reluctant to report more production capacity because they worry that they will bear the burden of inventory alone if the market changes. It is difficult for suppliers to increase prices because they cannot provide future products. Therefore, the good news is that the market price does not fluctuate. iSuppli believes that there is only a limited supply of the market, and customers will be willing to pay more if they can receive the required products. Before the first quarter or the second quarter of 2011, the supply period of the entire market will not return to the normal 6-8 weeks.

Magnetic element beads recently showed signs of weak demand in the market, iSuppli Corporation predicts that this sign will continue into the first quarter. In the first quarter, the supply period of the market remained at 10 weeks, and the second quarter supply period will decline slightly. Raw material prices remain high, which makes it less likely to cut prices. In the first quarter, the market price of magnetic beads will be stable overall.

The demand for fixed-inductance inductors remains stable but will decline at the end of the first quarter. The delivery period is maintained at 10 to 11 weeks. It is expected that the delivery period will decline slightly next month. Although the price of raw material copper remains high, in the first quarter, the price of the inductor will remain stable.

Memory DRAM

With the end of the Lunar New Year, demand for DRAM declined slightly, but the decline was modest. In late January, the price of DRAM fell, but its price remained stable in February. Prices are expected to be slightly weaker in March.

NAND

The price of NAND flash will drop slightly, but overall it will continue to be stable. Due to the declining seasonal demand and weak demand in March, there was no particular motivation for its consumption.

NOR

The problem of shortage of low density products has always existed. Prices for 512Mb and higher density products are declining slightly. Micron's acquisition of Numonyx will not affect the recent market.

Crystal TCXO

Wireless applications and GPS applications drive the needs of TCXO. Although demand is strong, supply will not be a problem in the second quarter of 2010. It is expected that the delivery period will decline slightly in the next quarter, prices will remain relatively stable, and prices of some special products will decrease.

VCXO

VCXO's demand has already shown signs of modest increase, and this trend will continue into the first quarter. The supply period of VCXO is stable, and there will be no major supply shortage in the market.

XO

The market demand is stable, and the delivery period should be maintained at 8 to 9 weeks. In the foreseeable future, there will be no supply shortage.

Due to the weak demand of rectifiers and the drop in average selling prices, in 2009, the rectifier market was shrinking by 20%. Although the rectifier market was hit hard in 2009, both the market demand and the average price are recovering.

As market demand exceeded supply, the average sales price of the market rose in January 2010. It is expected that the market price of rectifiers will rise slightly again in February and then begin to stabilize at the end of the second quarter of 2010.

The prolonged supply of the market in January and February 2010 was mainly due to the following factors: increased demand, capacity constraints brought about by the market rebound, and product shortages in the back-end market. Due to the extension of delivery time and the continuous increase in demand, the rectifier market may be allocated in the second quarter. By the end of the second quarter, the delivery time will stabilize.

PCB

In the fourth quarter of 2009, the demand for printed circuit boards slowed down. It is expected that by the end of the second quarter of 2010, seasonal demand will pick up and market demand will level off. After some raw materials rose, raw materials began to level off. Delivery time for standard products should be maintained at 4-5 weeks, and delivery times for special products may be longer.

Resistance The demand for resistance continues to be strong due to the mobile phone market, personal computer and communications market. Each new phone can use more than 400 chip resistors, and a computer can use up to 1000. The delivery time and price will remain relatively stable, and the delivery time and price of some 0201 package products will increase slightly. Suppliers are increasing their production, and iSuppli predicts that there will be no rations in the market.

Transistor Bipolar Power Transistors Due to economic constraints, market demand has shifted to cheaper switches rather than high-performance, more expensive devices. This trend has reduced the decline in the bipolar power transistor market in 2009. The current economic situation will be beneficial to bipolar power transistors (especially IGBTs), but disadvantageous to power MOSFETs, and the strong demand for bipolar power transistors in the market is extraordinary.

As iSuppli stated in January of this year, the price of bipolar power transistors increased in January, and this trend will continue until February. The average selling price inquiries began to stabilize in the second half of 2010. In the second half of 2010, the average selling price of bipolar power transistors will stabilize.

In February, the delivery period of bipolar power transistors continued to increase, especially in the SOT-23 package (delivery period of 18-26 weeks). It is expected that the prolonged delivery period of bipolar power transistors will become even more severe in the first quarter and second quarter of 2010. By the second half of 2010, the supply period of bipolar power transistors will stabilize.

Power MOSFET

The market for power MOSFETs consists of two parts: high-voltage MOSFETs and low-voltage MOSFETs. At present, the low-voltage MOSFET field has more innovations, which are caused by the increasing complexity in the design due to the voltage and voltage requirements of the CPU and GPU. The increase in power efficiency in the industrial market has also contributed to the growth of the high-voltage MOSFET market, and this area will become a new major market opportunity.

In February 2010, the demand for power MOSFETs continued to rise strongly. Just as prices rose in January, the increase in demand has already had a significant impact on the pricing environment. It is expected that prices will continue to rise throughout the first and second quarters, and prices will stabilize in the second half of 2010. Down.

In January-February, the delivery time was extended again, and most major manufacturers' MOSFET products were grading, such as On Semi, Fairchild, and IR. It is expected that this situation will continue until the second half of 2010.

Small Signal Transistors In February, the prices of small signal transistors continued to rise. iSuppli believes that in the first quarter of 2010, the price of small-signal transistors will rise. It is expected that in the second half of 2010, the average selling price of small-signal transistors will stabilize.

Due to strong demand, the availability of small signal transistors in February was extended again, and most products such as the SOT-23 package were regulated. It is expected that the supply period of small-signal transistors will stabilize in the second half of 2010.

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