LED lighting is a hot topic. I am more optimistic about the future market. I have been involved in various evaluations. I don’t want to miss a big opportunity at most. How to treat this market and estimate the timing of LED lighting, I will talk about my own views.
LED is used for lighting. Energy saving is unfounded. No matter how you design, you can't afford to measure multiple data. Of course, I don't mean that LED can't be used. There are many application cases for designing LED street lights, but it must be pointed out. At this stage, it is a big lie to say that LED street lamps are energy-saving! The application is error-free. We have the responsibility to correctly guide new friends. It is our responsibility to be misled.
Estimated LED lighting arrival time
The arrival time of LED lighting depends on the price of LEDs. In other words, it depends on the speed of LED price reduction and the price reduction. The occupancy of LED lighting applications or the speed of replacing energy-saving lamps depends on the speed of W/LM brightness development.
Now the development of LED per W/LM value is equivalent to the current energy-saving lighting fixtures. Assuming that the LED brightness value is not developing, the price is also equivalent. LED lighting will coexist with the current energy-saving lamps. Of course, this may be small. I personally was in 2002. At the beginning of the year, it was exposed to high-brightness white LEDs. At the time, it was used in skin detection CMOS lens front-end light source, 3mm plug-in LED, the price is 10 yuan / only, the current LED is only 0.6 yuan, the price has dropped 17 times in 6 years. Purchase in 2006 Batch 1W LED, 60LM price is 24 yuan, currently only 6 yuan, three times down four times.
The price reduction of LED will speed up. If the price level of energy-saving lamps is reached, the LED needs to be reduced to 1 yuan/W, which is the basic condition for the lighting market. According to the current price reduction rate, it will be reduced to 1 yuan/W/60LM within three years. Level.
If the LED per K/LM value develops rapidly, such as 150LM/W or higher, the cost will not be higher than the current number of lamps. The current energy-saving lamps will inevitably attract “killing the bodyâ€. The proportion will be greatly reduced, and the thorough removal is not Possibly, concentrated high-power W-number (such as a few hundred W) point source LED lighting can not be achieved.
150LM/W is currently in the laboratory, it is estimated that it can be commercialized in two years, and commercialization of large-area lighting can be realized in two years. The real energy saving and policy will accelerate the popularization, but it takes at least 5 years. Don't worry about the price, the price What you can decide is that the market needs this process. The LED lighting trend is certain, but from the time of price reduction, it is bound to have no good market results in the short term, even if you try to reduce the price, it is also "fur". From time In view of the fact, LED lighting research now requires more investment and a longer incubation period.
It is recommended that manufacturers do not take LED lighting as their main business for the time being. As a future strategic research, don't consider cost as the main item of consideration. High-water products cultivate high-level products. At present, plug-in 5mm LED can only be used as lighting. It is recommended to give up as soon as possible. The package form is designed for the indicator light, the heat dissipation condition is poor, and the light decay is severe. The package consumes too much material, which seriously hinders the future price reduction plan.
From the current situation, the 0.5W package is the most suitable way to replace the fluorescent tube with LED. The heat dissipation condition is easy to realize, the light efficiency condition is high, and the cost of the chip package is significantly reduced compared with 5mm.
When will LED lighting go to the application peak?
Actually, it is difficult to have accurate time. It can only be approximate. There are more factors affected. I personally think that price is the main factor. When the LED is equal to the existing energy-saving lamps, only the price will make the LED in the field of lighting. Some of the lamps and lanterns go hand in hand. I don't know if the netizens really can't understand it. I want to take it out of context. I take the LED fluorescent tube. Some manufacturers have used the LED below 2 cents in order to reduce the cost. It is basically difficult. There is room for price reduction, because these 5mm LEDs basically have the material cost. According to a lamp with 200pcs, the total price of 0.2 yuan is 40 yuan, and the same power 1W LED has 12pcs. It is expensive now, but it is entirely possible to drop. One to one yuan.
Of course, there are also objections. Some netizens said that it is impossible to drop to 1 yuan. The forum is difficult to reconcile opinions. I think that the current situation of .5mm and the 1W LED light decay are equal to each other. This is a recognized fact. The netizen also said, I don't know LED at all, he won't, his 5mm has the same high power light decay. But I haven't seen his LED yet. Designing heat is not going to be a problem, design Cooling also requires cost considerations!
I agree with the netizens that the lighting application time is around 2012. In the past few years, the circuit structure will be improved, the appearance ID design will form a relatively complete lighting control system, and the LED price will be competitive. There is no mandatory policy before 2015, LED lighting It is difficult to have absolute advantage. Sometimes some people stop the production of incandescent lamps in some countries to associate with LEDs, misleading the public! The actual impact of LED lighting is not incandescent lamps, the key is what we put the existing energy-saving lamps Position. Energy-saving lamps have been implemented for more than 10 years, and it is only a long time to stop producing incandescent lamps. How long does it take to save energy-saving lamps?
The formation of a relatively complete lighting control system will accelerate the LED into thousands of households. There have been researches in the home lighting system that have not been accepted by the public. The reason is that there are too many types of light sources, which require different adjustments. Light mode, it is difficult to unify. Most of the existing lamp drivers do not support the dimming interface, which brings great development opportunities for LEDs, because LED is the most suitable light source for dimming. We carefully understand that the LED driver chip users are not difficult to find, All LED driver ICs will have a PWM interface, and the current technology to increase PWM will not increase or decrease the cost of the line.
I have already found a good communication method for LED lighting. I have called for "power carrier technology" for decades. I developed it for the carrier phone in the early days. It has been a failure to promote it for decades. Now what is remote meter reading? Wait, snoring, I think it is not as convenient as the home router to the root line.
It is recommended to use LEDs most suitable, mature technology combination, fast speed and win-win. In combination with power carrier technology without destroying the existing power grid system, the switch box only needs to change the interface, the space inside is enough, LED The luminaire adds a receiving chip to the PWM bridge.
LEDs for home use will adapt to different levels of lighting needs. Color temperature, color tone, brightness can be adjusted infinitely, and music, illumination and other interfaces can be reserved. Floors and walls can be decorated and can be turned into a ballroom at any time. Even if you are a customer, you are willing to choose.
Companies that have complete solutions for power carrier technology can get in touch with me. I am responsible for integration. But we must emphasize the signing of a long-term exclusive agency agreement, otherwise I will not find me if I play myself.
From what aspects LED lighting will start, it is the most common question asked by netizens, and it is relatively concerned.
From the current market understanding, LED fluorescent tube structure application will be better developed. From the perspective of home lighting, the appropriate lighting intensity still needs more than 10W energy-saving lighting products. Fluorescent lamps are mostly 7-15W power, energy-saving fluorescent lamps in 20- 40W power. If the LED is designed with more than 10W of power, heat dissipation will cause us a headache. Obviously, the bulb-structured product is not suitable for LED applications.
The fluorescent tube type structure meets the LED heat dissipation requirements and also conforms to the existing lamp interface mode. Manufacturers design LED lights with a power of less than 20W from the cost considerations. From the ever-increasing LED brightness, 20W meets the future development requirements of LED lighting sources. When the LM/W value reaches 150LM, it is the era of LED lighting and energy saving!
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