[Cu] On the previous trading day, after the opening of the Shanghai copper market, there was a certain downward adjustment after the opening of the day period, influenced by the previous profit taking and the psychological factors of the callback. However, market sentiment continued to recover, and the price regained its strength and finally closed at it. Round rebound high. The main 1109 contract eventually closed at 71,050 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. On the previous trading day, the LME Copper copper March contract price surged sharply due to the favorable macro message and the US dollar's pressure to fall. The price was directly at the mid-term high resistance at 9700, and the previous day's closing price was $9749.75, up 2.50%. Spot market price of SMM1# copper continued to follow the rebound of futures prices in the previous trading day. The price range was 70,700-7,1050 yuan/ton, and the average price rose by 175 yuan compared with the previous transaction. Yesterday the domestic market showed an intraday disorderly shock consolidation pattern due to the impact of the rate hike. However, the external disk, especially the U.S. data, was basically in line with our previous day's bullish expectations and played a significant role in boosting the copper price. Among them, the number of new jobs created in the United States and the number of people who received benefits earlier than last week were significantly better than the previous value. Although the decline in EIA crude oil stocks was not as expected, stocks, including gasoline and distilled oil, declined to varying degrees. As a result, the surge in the stock market and crude oil has been promoted and the copper price has been driven up sharply. In addition, the European Central Bank’s rate hike is also basically in line with expectations, and has played a decisive role in the dollar. Taken together, the continuous rise of copper prices in this round exceeded our expectations to a certain extent, but the upward trend in the short-term is basically in line with expectations. In the medium-term, the price of copper will face the test of mid-term resistance level. If the booth is medium-term high, then The upside will be gradually released later. From a technical point of view, in the short term, the price of copper breaks through the 60-day moving average and jumps past the first resistance of 69,000 yuan. This undoubtedly makes the price of copper in the short term has formed a strong upward trend. It can be inferred that if the price of copper can successfully reach the middle price of the high level shock zone, that is, 9700 U.S. dollars or 73,000 U.S. dollars, we think that the price of copper will probably hit a record high again. Finally, in terms of short-term operations, we suggest that the early bulls have continued to hold, but short-selling funds can still wait for the emergence of the bottom of the short-term correction and the clarity of the follow-up trend.
[Aluminum] LME aluminum prices continued to rise following the overall macroeconomic factors overnight. The previous day's closing price was 2582.25 US dollars, up 1.22% from the previous trading day. On the previous domestic trading day, the daily price of Shanghai Aluminum's main 1109 contract also followed the adjustment trend of the price of copper, but it eventually fell back slightly. The final price closed at 17,405 yuan, down 0.26% from the previous day's average price, and the position fell back to 102,068. In terms of the domestic spot market, according to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals, the transaction range of Aoo aluminum (Al) was 17560-17590 yuan, up by 10 yuan from the previous day. In terms of fundamentals, aluminum stocks in the previous period fell sharply again last week. Inventory subtotals decreased by 15,878 tons, with a total of 254,617 tons. It can be seen that inventory and costs have begun to move toward the bullish aspects. In addition, with the advent of high temperatures in the domestic summer and the pressure of coal supply, it is expected that aluminum prices will still be subject to pressure from electricity supply and a certain premium will emerge. In addition, from June 1 onwards, the increase in industrial electricity prices in some provinces and cities across the country has also led to a significant increase in the cost of aluminum manufacturing. This shows that the electricity shortage is still a serious problem this year. The bauxite export was also suppressed as a sign of China’s support for global aluminum prices. However, on the whole, a large amount of inventory accumulation and market capacity still may eliminate short-term speculative upward momentum. As for the trend of aluminum prices, we believe that we should continue to maintain high volatility in the short term. The increase in the cost of medium-term electricity and the continuous and significant drop in the apparent inventory of the Exchange will all play a significant role in promoting the rise in aluminum prices. However, judging from the short-term hedge positions and the amount of inventories that are still available, as the largest aluminum producer in the world, the status quo of fundamental oversupply is hard to change in the short term.
[Aluminum] LME aluminum prices continued to rise following the overall macroeconomic factors overnight. The previous day's closing price was 2582.25 US dollars, up 1.22% from the previous trading day. On the previous domestic trading day, the daily price of Shanghai Aluminum's main 1109 contract also followed the adjustment trend of the price of copper, but it eventually fell back slightly. The final price closed at 17,405 yuan, down 0.26% from the previous day's average price, and the position fell back to 102,068. In terms of the domestic spot market, according to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals, the transaction range of Aoo aluminum (Al) was 17560-17590 yuan, up by 10 yuan from the previous day. In terms of fundamentals, aluminum stocks in the previous period fell sharply again last week. Inventory subtotals decreased by 15,878 tons, with a total of 254,617 tons. It can be seen that inventory and costs have begun to move toward the bullish aspects. In addition, with the advent of high temperatures in the domestic summer and the pressure of coal supply, it is expected that aluminum prices will still be subject to pressure from electricity supply and a certain premium will emerge. In addition, from June 1 onwards, the increase in industrial electricity prices in some provinces and cities across the country has also led to a significant increase in the cost of aluminum manufacturing. This shows that the electricity shortage is still a serious problem this year. The bauxite export was also suppressed as a sign of China’s support for global aluminum prices. However, on the whole, a large amount of inventory accumulation and market capacity still may eliminate short-term speculative upward momentum. As for the trend of aluminum prices, we believe that we should continue to maintain high volatility in the short term. The increase in the cost of medium-term electricity and the continuous and significant drop in the apparent inventory of the Exchange will all play a significant role in promoting the rise in aluminum prices. However, judging from the short-term hedge positions and the amount of inventories that are still available, as the largest aluminum producer in the world, the status quo of fundamental oversupply is hard to change in the short term.
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